Modelling and forecasting length of stay

The paper analyses, estimates and forecasts tourism demand for the region of the Sardinia (Italy). Seasonal and non-seasonal unit root tests are employed on monthly data for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Two approaches are implemented: a quantitative analysis (i.e. a standard dynamic OLS and a SARMA with interventions) and an experts' opinion qualitative approach. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run for the period between January and December 2003 and actual data are compared with the experts' expectations and the quantitative results. Overall, evidence is provided that an integrative forecasting approach leads to more accurate forecasts. © 2010 anatolla Printed In Turkey. All rights reserved.