Desertification Risk: Bibliometric Analysis and Future Research Directions

Desertification, driven by climatic and anthropogenic factors, is one of the most pressing global environmental challenges, causing significant economic, ecological, and social consequences. A bibliometric analysis was performed to identify research trends and gaps in the desertification risk topic. Bibliometrix and Biblioshiny software were employed to analyse patterns in research publications. The analysis findings of the 864 research papers published between 1978 and 2024, sourced from the Scopus database, reveal a significant increase in desertification research with distinct development phases; geographically diverse contributions from China, Italy, Spain, and the United States; limited international collaboration; and high-frequency keywords such as "climate change," "risk assessment," and "remote sensing." Thematic evolution shows an early phase (1978-2001) on geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, and risk assessment; an expansion phase (2002-2020) on climate change; and a recent phase (2021-2024) marked by numerical and climate modeling. Three major research streams were identified: climatic drivers and climate change, technological advancements in monitoring and assessment, and socio-economic and policy dimensions. The analysis reveals critical gaps including limited integration of socio-economic data with climate models and underutilisation of artificial intelligence (AI) for monitoring desertification and land degradation. Future research should integrate models with socio-economic data, leverage big data and AI, expand research to underrepresented regions, and scale community-based solutions. Strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration will support adaptive, sustainable frameworks to combat desertification and foster resilience.