Estimation of the economic and social impact of a museum activity, a case study: the Tavolara Pavillon in Sassari

This paper outlines a comprehensive approach to evaluating the eco-nomic and social impact of museum activities, with a particular focus on the Tavolara Pavilion in Sassari, the future regional museum for Design and Handi-crafts. To assess the impact on induced productive activities, the paper proposes using a regional Input-Output Table (IOT) tailored to the local territorial context. This tool allows the measurement of the effects of demand shocks, such as in-creased tourist spending, and identifies production constraints that may hinder the deployment of demand effects. Furthermore, the paper introduces the Theory of Change (ToC) as a tool to measure the cultural growth of a community. This approach involves outlining hypotheses underlying causal mechanisms govern-ing change, defining scenarios, and verifying the change path with various stake-holders. The integration of the two approaches is emphasized, where the ToC focuses on the "micro" effects of cultural change on individuals or communities, while the IOT-based analysis has a "macro" reference, offering insights at the level of productive sectors. The combination of these approaches allows for a thorough investigation into various dimensions of museum activity. This inte-grated approach proves valuable in an ex-ante perspective for strategy definition, ongoing monitoring for reprogramming and adjusting interventions, and finally, for an ex-post evaluation with accountability purposes related to socio-economic-environmental impacts.