Data di Pubblicazione:
2010
Citazione:
Modelling and forecasting length of stay: an integrative approach / Pulina, Manuela. - In: ANATOLIA AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY. - ISSN 1303-2917. - 21:2(2010), pp. 305-321.
Abstract:
The paper analyses, estimates and forecasts tourism demand to Sardinia
(Italy). Seasonal and non-seasonal unit root tests are employed on monthly
data for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Two approaches are imple -mented: a quantitative analysis (i.e. a standard dynamic OLS and a SARMA
with interventions) and an experts’ opinion qualitative approach. A full
range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run
for the period between January and December 2003 and actual data are com -pared with the experts’ expectations and the quantitative results. Overall,
evidence is provided that an integrative forecasting approach leads to more
accurate forecasts.
(Italy). Seasonal and non-seasonal unit root tests are employed on monthly
data for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Two approaches are imple -mented: a quantitative analysis (i.e. a standard dynamic OLS and a SARMA
with interventions) and an experts’ opinion qualitative approach. A full
range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run
for the period between January and December 2003 and actual data are com -pared with the experts’ expectations and the quantitative results. Overall,
evidence is provided that an integrative forecasting approach leads to more
accurate forecasts.
Tipologia CRIS:
1.1 Articolo in rivista
Keywords:
Market segments; Quantitative forecasting; Qualitative forecasting
Elenco autori:
Pulina, Manuela
Link alla scheda completa:
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