Assessing exposure of human and ecological values to wildfire in Sardinia, Italy

"We used simulation modeling to analyze spatial variation in wildfire exposure relative to key social and economic features on Sardinia Island, Italy. Sardinia contains a high density of urban interfaces, recreational values and highly valued agricultural areas that are increasingly being threatened by severe wildfires. Historical fire data and wildfire simulations were used to estimate burn probabilities, flame length, and fire size. We examined how these risk factors varied among and within highly valued features located on the island. Estimates of burn probability excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0 to 1.92 10-3, with a mean value of 6.48 10-5. Spatial patterns in modeled outputs were strongly related to fuel loadings, although topographic and other influences were apparent. Wide variation was observed among the land parcels for all the key values, providing a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities"