Evaluating fire modelling systems in recent wildfires of the Golestan National Park, Iran

This study analyzed differences between actual and modelled fire predictions for two recent fires that affected the Golestan National Park in northeastern Iran. FARSITE and FlamMap minimum travel time (MTT) fire modelling systems were used to compare spatial differences in burned area between observed and modelled fires. Then, the spatial variability in fire spread and behaviour related to differences in fuel types and topography was analyzed. Comparison between the observed and simulated fire perimeters showed a relatively good agreement. For both case studies, the simulations performed with the MTT algorithm presented slightly higher accuracy than the FARSITE ones. Although we found spatial differences in fire intensity and rate of spread modelling outputs, the average values in burned areas provided by FARSITE and FlamMap MTT simulations were very similar. The comparison of fire spread models provided a better understanding of their potential limits and differences in fire growth and behaviour predictions over heterogeneous-fuel landscapes, complex topography and changing weather conditions.