Climate change hastens the urgency of conservation for range-restricted plant species in the central-northern Mediterranean region

With the consensus that human activities are leading to dangerous interference in Earth’s climate, there
has been growing policy pressure for clear quantification and attribution of the resulting biological
impacts. Despite the exceptional diversity in the Mediterranean biome, largely due to the number of rare
and endemic plant species, the effect of future climate change on present Mediterranean plant species
has only been examined in a few studies. In this study we presented an analysis of the potential effects
of climate change on 22 plant species whose range is restricted to central-northern Mediterranean region.
We used species distribution modelling to test whether projected climate change may affect the current
suitability of species’ habitat; to evaluate possible future threats due to climate change; and to test any
relationship between extinction risk and ecological and life-history predictors. The studied species were
predicted to lose some 50% of their current range by 2020. Similarly, the probability of occurrence in
known localities was predicted to drop drastically by 2020. Our results support a relationship between
biological characteristics and range contractions. Although the Mediterranean species were projected
to lose a lower amount of habitat than Alpine ones, species with restricted geographic range seem to
be more prone to climate change effects than widespread ones. Our results emphasize the need for immediate
monitoring and conservation actions and suggest that rare species might be useful for monitoring
the conservation status of habitat in relationship to the effects of global warming in the Mediterranean
region.