Predicting the potential distribution of Ranunculus sardous (Ranunculaceae), a new alien species in the flora of Uzbekistan and Central Asia

A new alien species in the flora of Uzbekistan, Ranunculus sardous Crantz, was identified during a study of plant specimens at the National Herbarium of Uzbekistan (TASH) and in field surveys. R. sardous is native to Europe and is reported as an alien species in many other regions, including North America, Australia, China, India, Japan, and Korea. This species was first observed in Uzbekistan in March 2012, with further records in different regions of the country. Field observations confirmed the presence of at least ten populations of this species in the Tashkent and Namangan regions, Uzbekistan. We consider it a locally naturalized alien that might invade both ruderal and segetal plant communities. We modelled the suitability that may drive the future distribution of this new alien species resulting from global climate change based on future climate scenarios and ensemble modelling. The model predicted an overall low suitability for the current climate in Uzbekistan, while suitability would decrease under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 by 2070. The invasive status of R. sardous was assessed using its degree of resistance, frequency of occurrence, and ecological-phytocoenotic features. According to the methodology applied, R. sardous scored 9 points, which indicates a possible invasion risk to natural flora. Therefore, we suggest prioritising an eradication plan before the species becomes too widespread.